PROVIDENCE, R.I. -- Senator Lincoln Chafee holds a lead over Congressman Robert Weygand in the race for U.S. Senate, according to a new Providence Journal/Brown University statewide survey. Al Gore, Patrick Kennedy and James Langevin are ahead in their respective races for presidency and Congress.

The survey was conducted October 21-22, 2000 at Brown University by Darrell M. West, director of the Taubman Center for Public Policy. It was based on a statewide random sample of 412 registered voters in Rhode Island. Overall, the poll had a margin of error of about plus or minus five percentage points. The survey was sponsored by the Providence Journal.

Among the 370 voters who indicated they are likely to vote in the November general election, 52 percent say they plan to vote for Chafee, 28 percent favor Weygand, 2 percent prefer Reform party candidate Christopher Young, 0 percent support independent candidate Kenneth Proulx, and 18 percent are undecided. Last August, 48 percent said they would support Chafee, 31 percent claimed they would vote for Weygand, 1 percent each favored Reform party candidate Christopher Young and independent candidate Kenneth Proulx, and 19 percent were unsure.

Demographic breakdowns reveal that Chafee runs well among Independents (besting Weygand by 55 to 24 percent) and is drawing 40 percent of the Democratic vote and 27 percent of non-whites. Chafee also leads Weygand among union members by 55 to 28 percent, among senior citizens by 46 to 31 percent. Forty-one percent say the fact that Lincoln Chafee is the son of former Senator John Chafee is important to their vote compared to 50 percent who believe it is not very important.

In order to examine how voters saw the candidates, we asked them whether Chafee or Weygand would do a better job in several different areas. The results demonstrate that Chafee is seen as more likely to do a better job in areas from health care and foreign policy to education and keeping abortion legal. He furthermore is more likely to be seen as caring about people and being trusted to keep his word. By a 36 to 16 percent margin, more people are likely to blame Weygand than Chafee for the negative campaigning that has taken place in this race.

Congressman Patrick Kennedy holds a lead of 59 to 24 percent over GOP challenger Steven Cabral among the 179 likely voters in the first district. In August, Kennedy led by 68 to 16 percent over Cabral. Kennedy runs better among women than men, earns 85 percent of the Democratic vote, and garners 64 percent of the union support.

In the second congressional district, among the 189 voters who indicated they were likely to vote in this race, Secretary of State James Langevin is favored by 54 percent, followed by 12 percent for independent candidate Rodney Driver, 7 percent for Republican Robert Tingle, and 2 percent for Green party candidate Dorman Hayes. Twenty-five percent are undecided.

Demographic breakdowns indicate that Langevin has a big margin (65 percent) among Democrats (compared to 7 percent for Driver, 2 percent for Tingle, and 4 percent for Hayes) and garners 56 percent of the Independent vote. He also gets 60 percent of the union vote, 50 percent of the non-white vote, and 48 percent of support among senior citizens.

In the presidential general election matchup, Gore garners support from 47 percent compared to 29 percent who say they will vote for Bush. Eight percent indicate they prefer Green party candidate Ralph Nader, one percent say they support Reform party nominee Pat Buchanan, and 15 percent are undecided. Last August, Gore was ahead of Bush by 54 to 23 percent, with 5 percent favoring Nader, 2 percent supporting Buchanan, and 16 percent unsure.

By a 58 to 12 percent margin, likely voters support a call for a Constitutional Convention that would "expressly establish that Rhode Island government consists of separate and co-equal legislative, executive, and judicial branches similar to the governments established by the United States Constitution and by the Constitutions of all 49 other states." The measure is supported by most demographic categories, with the exception of non-whites, where only 27 percent say they support it.

Forty-seven percent of likely voters oppose the state of Rhode Island issuing up to $25 million in bonds for the construction of the Heritage Harbor Museum, 32 percent are in favor, and 21 percent are undecided. Fifty-six percent of Republicans oppose the bond measured, compared to 51 percent of Independents, and 40 percent of Democrats.

Sixty percent indicate that Providence Mayor Buddy Cianci is doing an excellent or good job as mayor of Providence, 16 percent rate him only fair, 10 percent say his performance is poor, and 14 percent are unsure. These numbers are down from a comparable statewide survey in February, 2000, when 70 percent gave Cianci excellent or good marks, 14 percent rated him only fair, 5 percent gave him poor marks, and 11 percent were undecided. In September, 1999, a statewide survey gave him a 75 percent excellent or good job performance rating.

In terms of demographic breakdowns, Cianci has a 74 percent job approval rating from union members, 57 percent among senior citizens, and 71 percent from those living in Providence.

Fifty-four percent say they believe Providence is headed in the right direction, 29 percent believe it has gotten off on the wrong track, and 17 percent did not offer an opinion. Statewide, older voters over the age of 55 were least likely to feel Providence is on the right track. Fifty-seven percent of those living in Providence believe the city is headed in the right direction.

In an open-ended question, we asked people what they thought the most important problem was facing the state and then classified answers into policy categories. The top issue named this month was health care (14 percent), followed by ethics and corruption (named by 13 percent of voters), education (13 percent,) and taxes (11 percent, up from 6 percent in August).

We also looked at the impact of voter's views about the most important problem and whether the individual would vote for Chafee versus Weygand in the Senate race. Among those citing ethics and corruption, education, or taxes as the most important problem, Chafee holds a big lead over Weygand (56 to 30 percent on ethics and corruption, 60 to 27 percent on education, and 55 to 23 percent on taxes). However, with those feeling health care is the most important issue, voters are nearly evenly split in their candidate preferences. Forty percent indicate they would vote for Weygand, while 38 percent say they would prefer Chafee.

For more information, contact Darrell M. West at (401) 863-1163 or see the website: www.InsidePolitics.org.