Presidential Campaign Air Wars (posted November 24, 1999)

You can tell the primaries are not very far away when presidential candidates start saturating the early states (especially Iowa and New Hampshire) with television ads. Over the past couple of weeks, Democrats Gore and Bradley as well as Republicans Bush, McCain, and Forbes have been airing commercials which introduce themselves to voters and lay out the central issues of their campaigns. So far, the ads are mostly positive and aim to give viewers a sense of who the candidates are. There have been few of the thermonuclear attack ads which have plagued past races.

In part, candidates have learned that they must used attack ads very carefully. Gone are the old days when you could use ads like a sledge hammer to pound away at opponents. Such commercials invariably generate a voter backlash against those employing such tactics. In their place has arisen "positive attack ads," which feature 15 seconds of positive explanations of what the candidate will do and 15 seconds of criticisms directed at the opponent.

The virtue of this paired combination of positive and negative appeals is that it allows candidates to attach negative information to opponents without suffering the backlash from voters fed up with negative campaigning.

The fact that the country has peace and prosperity makes it even more difficult for candidates to engage in mudslinging. With 70 percent of the electorate feeling the country is headed in the right direction and unemployment at record lows, it is hard to arouse voters with negative spots.

Hence, McCain has broadcast a bio spot featuring his POW background and Bradley emphasizes his basketball past and Rhodes Scholarship. Bush talks about compassionate conservatism and the need to rebuilt the military and Forbes warns about relying too heavily on the government to solve problems. Gore says he will protect Social Security and Medicare.

As we get closer to the Iowa and New Hampshire, though, look for the candidates to become more explicit at pointing out differences. Gore will attack Bradley's health care plan as too expensive and Bradley will say that Gore thinks little and is unwilling to exercise leadership. Bush will say McCain is too liberal for his party and that Forbes, who campaigned in 1996 as a moderate, has flip-flopped into someone claiming he now represents the conservative wing of the party. Forbes will charge that Bush has not kept the lid on government in Texas and is too moderate for the GOP.

Voters have not seen the end of attack ads, but candidates are learning to go on the offensive with more subtly given the era of good feelings that exists throughout much of America.