The John McCain Surge (posted November 30, 1999)

Over the past two months, the most interesting new development in the presidential campaign has been the New Hampshire surge of Arizona Senator John McCain. Once an asterisk candidate who rated so low in national polls that his number was marked with an asterisk for being below the poll's margin of error, the Republican contender has arisen to the point where he is in a dead-heat with George W. Bush in the Granite State (although McCain still trails Bush by large numbers in national polls and in Iowa and South Carolina).

Four factors explain McCain's rise. First was the withdrawal of Elizabeth Dole from the Republican field. Since she was one of the more moderate Republicans running, her departure saw much of her vote go to McCain.

Second, as an independent thinker who has taken on his party's position on campaign finance reform (he favors the elimination of soft money) and tobacco legislation (he advocated tough measures against the industry), McCain appeals to voters tired of robot candidates who strictly adhere to conventional party positions.

Third, McCain is a media darling since he is accessible and quotable, and loves to take unconventional stances. Reporters would love to see a competitive race and someone has to emerge as the alternative to Bush.

Fourth, since he is running a national campaign, Bush has spent far less time in New Hampshire than has McCain.

Yet despite these gains, don't look for McCain to beat Bush. McCain is engaging in the classic darkhorse strategy of focusing all his time and resources on two early states, New Hampshire and South Carolina, in hopes of an early knockout. Bush meanwhile is building strong organizations in a number of states across the country and has spread his financial resources in a number of different locations. With the front-loaded primary calendar in which two-thirds of delegates are going to be chosen in a narrow window from early February to mid-March, even if McCain beats Bush in New Hampshire (which is quite possible), the Arizona Senator is unlikely to be competitive with Bush elsewhere. McCain is not even contesting the Iowa caucuses in recognition that he does not have adequate financial resources. And for several elections, New Hampshire has not held the kind of prominence that it used to have. Tsongas beat Clinton in 1992 in the Granite State, but lost the nomination. Dole lost to Buchanan in 1996, but still marched to the nomination.

Bush has too many endorsements from governors, Senators, and House members and too much money spread across too many states around the country to lose. The only candidate with real financial parity with Bush is multi-millionaire Steve Forbes. That candidate has more potential to create difficulties for Bush than McCain does.