Bush versus the Field

Texas Governor George W. Bush is in the catbird seat for the Republican nomination. Well-known and well-funded due to his famous last name, Bush has obvious advantages that make him the envy of his GOP rivals. Already he has raised over $13 million, dwarfing the war-chests of the other candidates. More than 100 prominent Republican Senators, House representatives, and governors from around the country have endorsed him.

The fact that there are almost a dozen other candidates seeking the Republican nod should allow Bush to splinter the opposition. People who are concerned about his lack of policy specificity, conservative credentials, and views on abortion, schools, and the environment will divide themselves among all the other competing candidates, which should help Bush. He can position himself in the mainstream of his party on tax cuts and social policy, but not at the really conservative end of the party spectrum. The billion dollar tax cut just passed by the Texas legislature and increase in funding for education give him two major planks that should prove popular with the American public.

Bush will be helped by party rules governing the nominating process. Unlike the Democrats, the Republican party has retained winner-take-all primaries in a number of states. This means that whoever gets the largest number of votes wins all the delegates from that state. As long as Bush can keep the field of opposition candidates large and divided, he should be able to win enough primary states to put himself over the top for the GOP nomination.

The biggest concern about his candidacy is his general lack of specificity on many major policy issues, from cultural issues to Kosovo. At some point, he will have to provide voters with more of a sense of his policy vision in order to reassure them that he is up to the job of being president.