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PROVIDENCE, R.I. -- Congressman Robert Weygand has a lead over former Lieutenant Governor Richard Licht, according to a new Providence Journal/Brown University statewide survey. However, the poll shows both Democrats trailing current U.S. Senator Lincoln Chafee. Vice President Al Gore holds a comfortable margin over Republican nominee George W. Bush.

The survey was conducted August 26-30, 2000 at Brown University by Darrell M. West, director of the Taubman Center for Public Policy. It was based on a statewide random sample of 438 registered voters in Rhode Island. Overall, it had a margin of error of about plus or minus five percentage points. The survey was sponsored by the Providence Journal.

Among the 300 voters who indicated they were likely to vote in the Democratic primary for Senate, Weygand leads Licht by 41 to 29 percent, with 30 percent unsure. This group of likely primary voters had a margin of error of about plus or minus six percentage points. In mid-August, according to a Mellman Group poll on behalf of the Licht campaign, Weygand led 39 to 27 with 34 percent undecided.

In looking at key demographic breakdowns, Weygand leads among union members by 51 to 29 percent, Democrats by 46 to 30 percent, Independents by 39 to 26 percent, and senior citizens by 36 to 26 percent. He also is beating Licht by 48 to 22 percent in Providence and 43 to 36 in the Warwick and Cranston areas.

In order to examine how voters saw the candidates, we asked them whether Weygand or Licht would do a better job in the following areas. The results demonstrate that Licht is seen as more likely to keep abortion legal, but Weygand is viewed as more likely to improve health care and to be caring and trustworthy. By a 32 to 16 percent margin, more people are likely to blame Licht than Weygand for the negative campaigning that has taken place in this race.

In the Democratic primary for the second congressional district, among the 152 voters who indicated they were likely to vote in this second district primary, Secretary of State James Langevin is favored by 37 percent, followed by 21 percent for Kate Coyne-McCoy, 6 percent for Kevin McAllister, and 3 percent for Angel Tavares. Thirty-three percent are undecided. The margin of error for this primary result is about plus or minus seven percentage points. A Mellman Group survey commissioned by Langevin found a week ago that Langevin led Coyne-McCoy by 41 to 18 percent, with 4 percent for McAllister, 2 percent for Tavares, and 35 percent undecided.

Demographic breakdowns indicate that Langevin has a bigger margin over Coyne-McCoy among men (38 to 14 percent) than women (36 to 27 percent). Among Democrats, Langevin is ahead of Coyne-McCoy by 36 to 29 percent, but has a bigger margin of 38 to 17 among Independents. With union members, Coyne-McCoy leads Langevin by 35 to 30 percent. In Providence, Langevin leads Coyne-McCoy by 36 to 22 percent and by 45 to 19 percent in Warwick and Cranston, and by 40 to 16 percent among senior citizens.

When asked which candidate would do a better job in the following areas, Coyne-McCoy is seen as more likely to keep abortion legal, while Langevin is viewed as more likely to be trusted to keep his word. On health care, about as many people think Coyne-McCoy would do a better job as felt that way about Langevin. By a 21 to 13 percent margin, more blame Coyne-McCoy than Langevin for the negative campaigning in this contest.

In the contest for U.S. Senate, Senator Lincoln Chafee has a lead over his rivals. If Congressman Robert Weygand is the Democratic nominee, 48 percent say they would support Chafee, 31 percent claim they would vote for Weygand, 1 percent each favor Reform party candidate Christopher Young and independent candidate Kenneth Proulx, and 19 percent are unsure.

Demographic breakdowns reveal that Chafee runs well among Independents (besting Weygand by 55 to 25 percent) and is drawing 29 percent of the Democratic vote and 20 percent of non-whites. Chafee also leads Weygand among union members by 54 to 28 percent, among senior citizens by 53 to 25 percent, and in Providence by 42 to 35 percent.

U.S. Senator Lincoln Chafee also leads if Richard Licht is the Democratic nominee. Fifty percent say they would support Chafee, 21 percent claim they would vote for Licht, 1 percent each favor Reform party candidate Christopher Young and independent candidate Kenneth Proulx, and 27 percent are unsure.

Chafee runs well across various demographic categories. He attracts 53 percent of the union vote, 30 percent of the Democratic vote, 34 percent of the non-white vote, and 55 percent of the senior citizens vote. He leads Licht by 49 to 22 percent in Providence.

Congressman Patrick Kennedy holds a commanding lead of 68 to 16 percent over GOP challenger Steven Cabral among the 209 registered voters in the first district. Kennedy runs better among women than men, earns 88 percent of the Democratic vote, and garners 81 percent of the non-white support.

In the presidential general election matchup, Gore garners support from 54 percent compared to 23 percent who say they will vote for Bush. Five percent indicate they prefer Green party candidate Ralph Nader, two percent say they support Reform party nominee Pat Buchanan, and 16 percent are undecided. Last February, Gore was ahead of Bush by 39 to 25 percent, with 36 percent unsure.

In an open-ended question, we asked people what they thought the most important problem was facing the state and then classified answers into policy categories. The top issue named this month was health care, followed by ethics and corruption (named by 15 percent of voters), education (14%,) and taxes (6%). Only three individuals (less than 1 percent) named abortion as the most important state problem. Last February, when we asked the most important problem question, 13 percent named taxes, followed by ethics and corruption (11%), jobs and unemployment (10%), education (9%), health care (6%), business climate (5%), the economy (5%), roads (3%), race (5%), politicians and government performance (2%), crime (2%), the environment (2%), and budget (2%) . All other problems named were under 2%

On the controversial subject of abortion, 45 percent say abortion should be generally available to those who want it, 32 percent feel abortion should be available but under stricter limits than it is now, 12 percent believe abortion should not be permitted, and 11 percent are unsure.

The following table shows variations in abortion support across demographic categories.

In terms of how this issue affects candidate preferences in the Senate Democratic primary, Weygand holds a bigger lead (46 to 36 percent) among those who feel abortion should not be permitted than among those who feel it generally should be available (39 to 35 percent).

In the Congressional Democratic primary, abortion holds a stronger link to the vote. Langevin's lead over Coyne-McCoy swells from 32 to 27 among those who feel abortion generally should be available to 57 to 0 percent among those believing abortion should not be permitted.

Twenty-two percent said they or a member of their immediate family had experienced problems in obtaining affordable health care in the last year. Forty-seven percent believe Rhode Island's health care system has gotten worse over the past year. However, 73 percent rate the quality of the health care they have received over the past year as excellent or good. Sixty-eight percent express support for having Medicare cover prescription drug expenses for senior citizens even if it meant they would have to pay more.

The following tables show demographic breakdowns for the health care questions.

There was no difference in preference for Weygand or Licht for those who indicated they had problems in obtaining affordable health care. However, with those who had no problems in obtaining health care, Weygand leads Licht by 43 to 27 percent.

Coyne-McCoy runs stronger with voters who indicated they have had problems in obtaining affordable health care. Among that group, she leads Langevin by 30 to 23 percent. With those who have not had problems, Langevin is ahead by 39 to 18 percent.

For more information, contact Darrell M. West at (401) 863-1163 or see the website: www.InsidePolitics.org.