It is shaping up as the U.S. Senate race of the year: First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton versus New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani. Pitting first-time candidate Clinton (although she ran successfully for office three times in high school and college) against the popular Republican mayor, the 2000 race promises to make history in three different ways: 1) testing whether a sitting first lady can win elective office in her own right, 2) challenging the 1998 New York Senate record of $43.8 million spent by Alfonse D'Amato and Charles Schumer, and 3) serving as a referendum on Republican and Democratic handling of issues such as spending, taxes, crime, schools, children, gun control, and Kosovo.

In this report, I look at the upcoming Senate contest with an eye towards the strengths and weaknesses of each candidate. How will Clinton and Giuliani fare? What are the likely issues each will emphasize? What problems will each Senate aspirant face? What will be the overall political dynamics of the campaign destined to become the center of public and media interest as it unfolds next year?

Preliminary surveys already demonstrate that this race will be among the most closely contested campaigns in the country. From the early 11 percentage point lead Clinton enjoyed in February (53 to 42 percent) has come a race that now is deadlocked. A late March, 1999 survey by Marist College gave Clinton a 48 to 45.5 percent advantage over Giuliani, while a late April, 1999 poll by the New York Post puts the Mayor ahead of the First Lady by 46 to 42 percent. A confidential White House survey in May showed the First Lady leading Giuliani by only two percentage points, according to a May 20, 1999 NBC News report.

Early polls are problematic because voters typically have not tuned into the race and do not have well-formed opinions about the candidates. But with both Clinton and Giuliani being very well-known, it is interesting that voters already have formed specific impressions of the two individuals and the underlying issues of the race.

The New York Post survey demonstrates one possible risk for the First Lady. She does well among "groups normally considered the least likely to vote, while the mayor leads decisively in the suburbs and among independents." (see May 2, 1999 New York Post). There also is a gender gap in the expected direction, with Clinton leading among women while Giuliani is ahead among men. However, his advantage with males is twice as large as her margin with females and he is ahead among the crucial swing voters of Independents.

New York Senate races typically have shown tremendous differences in candidate fortunes between upstate and downstate. This, for example, was a major factor in recent contests involving Senators Daniel Patrick Moynihan and D'Amato, respectively. The Republican candidate typically ran well upstate, while the Democrat did much better in New York City.

It therefore is no surprise that Clinton leads Giuliani in New York City by a two-to-one margin, while he holds an equally big advantage upstate and in the suburbs. These patterns are confirmed in each of the two recent surveys undertaken. This is significant because in the Marist poll, New York City represents 31 percent of the electorate, compared to 45 percent for upstate, and 24 percent for suburban New York City.

The biggest uncertainty remaining in the contest between the two candidates is whether any independent candidates will emerge to complicate the general election. In some states, minor party candidates from the Green, Libertarian, or Reform parties have swayed the contest by drawing votes away from either the Republican or Democratic candidate. In a race likely to be as competitive as the 2000 New York Senate campaign, this is a feature that should be watched carefully as the next year unfolds.

One of the things that make this race interesting is the philosophic differences between the two candidates. While President Bill Clinton has worked hard to remake his party's image in a more centrist direction, First Lady Clinton has toed a more traditional liberal outlook in her public statements. For example, in 1996, when her husband signed the controversial welfare reform legislation, the First Lady reportedly was not very enthusiastic about the bill, especially after it was attacked by many of her friends in the progressive community. The biggest question for Mrs. Clinton is to what degree she positions herself as an old-fashioned liberal versus the "New Democrat" motif popularized by her husband.

Mayor Giuliani has stayed away from the most conservative elements of the GOP and fashioned a persona for himself as a moderate Republican, tough on crime and taxes, but pro-choice on abortion and supportive of gun control regulation. As a former prosecutor, he has excellent crime-fighting credentials and is well-liked by New York City voters.

Despite the early state of this race, the New York Post poll shows that each candidate already is seen in starkly different terms by the electorate. Whereas Giuliani is rated positively by New Yorkers on issues of crime and taxes, Mrs. Clinton is seen more favorably on topics such as education and health care. The crime issue is a particularly good issue for the Mayor. Only 20 percent of New York voters see her as handling crime well, compared to 69 percent for him. In New York City, he holds a two-to-one advantage over her in handling of the crime issue.

Foreign policy is a possible wildcard in this race. Senate elections generally are more likely to focus on domestic than foreign policy as many Americans are more attuned to the economy and domestic pursuits. However, two foreign policy issues are likely to be important in the New York Senate race: the Kosovo war and U.S. policy towards Israel.

With the jury still out on President Bill Clinton's handling of Kosovo and with Mrs. Clinton having already uttered vaguely positive statements on a Palestinian state, look for Giuliani to press for advantage among those dissatisfied with President Clinton's handling of the war and those who would be upset about the creation of a Palestinian entity.

In politics, every candidate faces problems which must be addressed during the course of the campaign. For example, Giuliani leads a city that has a host of problems, from poor schools and high taxes to tense race relations. In fact, the Mayor received considerable negative publicity following the Spring, 1999 police shooting of Amadou Diallo, an unarmed bystander. The First Lady will try to turn these deficiencies on the part of the Mayor into major weaknesses in the eyes of voters.

For her part, Mrs. Clinton's biggest problem is the carpetbagger charge. Never having lived in New York City, the First Lady already has encountered criticism that she is opportunistic and doesn't really care about New Yorkers. The Mayor's sarcastic website, HillaryNo.com, regularly trashes her for not being a New York resident. Even the Mayor jokes that he'll move to Arkansas and campaign for the U.S. Senate from there.

Defenders of the First Lady cite former New York Senators Robert Kennedy and Daniel Patrick Moynihan to buttress their point that New Yorkers have elected people who had just moved into the state. But one Quinnipac Poll out this Spring showed that nearly 50 percent of state residents indicated they were worried about her coming from out of state.

In any close race, short-term factors, such as debates, ads, and new events pose a major challenge to the candidates. A year before the race, it is impossible to predict who will do well in debates, although both candidates in this case are bright and articulate, which suggests neither will stage a knockout blow in personal encounters. Each furthermore has strong fundraising experience, which means both candidates will be able to hire ad-makers and consultants who are among the best in the business.

The biggest question is whether Clinton's incumbency in the White House will produce any "October surprises" that will hurt the Mayor's electoral bid. With the bully pulpit of the White House behind her and the ability of the president to make news, look for the six weeks before the November election to be a wild roller coaster for both candidates!