Taubman Center for Public Policy Survey

Most Voters Believe Cianci is Guilty, but Many Doubt Jury Will Convict

A survey of 482 statewide voters conducted June 8-10 also finds that Myrth York leads Sheldon Whitehouse and Antonio Pires in the race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination.

PROVIDENCE, R.I. -- Fifty-two percent of the voters in Rhode Island believe Providence Mayor Buddy Cianci is guilty of the corruption, bribery, and extortion charges he faces in his current federal trial, while 25 percent think he is not guilty, according to a new public opinion survey by researchers at Brown University. However, many do not believe that the jury will convict him on these charges.

The survey was conducted June 8-10, 2002 at Brown University by Darrell M. West, director of the Taubman Center for Public Policy and the John Hazen White, Sr. Public Opinion Laboratory. It is based on a statewide random sample of 482 registered voters in Rhode Island. Overall, the poll had a margin of error of about plus or minus five percentage points.

Eighty-three percent said they believe that corruption in Providence city government is a very or somewhat serious problem, while only 7 percent think it is not very serious. Sixty-seven percent think Cianci has provided strong leadership for the city, 19 percent believe Cianci is an honest person (and 50 percent do not), and 44 percent believe Cianci has provided effective management of Providence city government.

When asked their view of the federal corruption, bribery, and extortion charges, 52 percent say they believe Cianci is guilty, 25 percent think he is not guilty, and 23 percent were unsure. But when asked whether they thought the jury in his trial would find Cianci guilty, 56 said they expected jurors to find him not guilty, 15 percent believe the jury will say he is guilty, and 29 percent were unsure.

Fifty-nine percent believe Mayor Cianci is doing a good or excellent job. This number is down slightly from the 63 percent who rated his job performance as good or excellent in January.

In the 2002 race for the Democratic nomination for governor, 39 percent of the 264 likely primary voters say they plan to vote for Myrth York (the party's nominee in 1994 and 1998), 22 percent indicate they will vote for Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse, 14 percent name State Representative Antonio Pires, and 25 percent are undecided. In January, 36 percent of likely primary voters said they would vote for York, 27 percent named Whitehouse, 11 percent cited Pires, and 26 percent were undecided. The margin of error for the Democratic primary is about plus or minus six percent.

Among the 231 first district voters, Congressman Patrick Kennedy leads each of his three Republican challengers. If the GOP nominee is Mike Battles, Kennedy is ahead by 49 to 28 percent, with 23 percent undecided. If the challenger is Christine Ferguson, Kennedy leads by 49 to 29 percent, with 22 percent undecided. If the Republican nominee is Dave Rogers, Kennedy is favored by 49 to 29 percent, with 22 percent undecided. In January, Kennedy led Battles by 52 to 25 percent, Ferguson by 50 to 27 percent, and Rogers by 50 to 25 percent.

In the contest for the Democratic nomination for Secretary of State, 26 percent of the 264 likely primary voters favor current Secretary of State Ed Inman, 23 percent support Matt Brown, and 51 percent are undecided. In January, 19 percent said they supported Brown, 19 percent favored Inman, and 62 percent were undecided.

There has been a drop in the job approval of Governor Lincoln Almond. Twenty-eight percent give Governor Lincoln Almond excellent or good ratings for how he is handling his job, compared to 37 percent who say it is only fair, 26 percent who believe it is poor, and 9 percent who are uncertain. In January, 34 percent gave Almond excellent or good marks.

Lieutenant Governor Charles Fogarty is rated excellent or good by 39 percent of voters (down from 43 percent last January). Fifty-three percent give excellent or good marks to Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse (down from 60 percent). Secretary of State Ed Inman is rated favorably by 34 percent of voters (up from 33 percent), and Treasurer Paul Tavares has a 45 percent job approval rating (up from 42 percent last time). Twenty-seven percent rate Senate Majority Leader William Irons as doing a good or excellent job (down from 31 percent). Twenty-five percent say House Speaker John Harwood is doing a good or excellent job, down from 26 percent.

In regard to federal officials, 62 percent believe President George W. Bush is doing a good or excellent job, 22 percent rate his performance only fair, and 7 percent indicate his performance has been poor. In January, 75 percent rated his job performance as good or excellent. Sixty-five percent give excellent or good marks to Senator Jack Reed (down from 73 percent). Fifty-three percent say the job performance of Senator Lincoln Chafee has been excellent or good (down from 60 percent). Sixty-four percent believe Congressman James Langevin is doing an excellent or good job (up from 62 percent). Fifty-two percent believe Congressman Kennedy is doing an excellent or good job (up from 50 percent).

Forty-three percent feel the state is headed in the right direction, while 43 percent believe it is off on the wrong track. Last January, 52 percent claimed Rhode Island was moving in the right direction, and 29 percent felt it was on the wrong track.

There has been a recovery in confidence about the state economy. Our Index of Consumer Sentiment for Rhode Island this month is 87.3, which is up from 69.5 in January, 75.1 in September, 86.5 in June, 2001, 97.9 in February, 2000 and 106.3 in January, 1999. This means consumer optimism has recovered to its pre-September 11 level. The index is modeled after five questions from a national index developed at the University of Michigan and is used to determine over time how optimistic people are.

For more information, contact Darrell M. West at (401) 863-1163.

Survey Questions and Responses

(231 first district voters only) If the candidates in the first congressional district were Republican Mike Battles and Democrat Patrick Kennedy, would you vote for: 28% Battles, 49% Kennedy, 23% don't know or no answer

(231 first district voters only) If the candidates in the first congressional district were Republican Christine Ferguson and Democrat Patrick Kennedy, would you vote for: 29% Ferguson, 49% Kennedy, 22% don't know or no answer

(231 first district voters only) If the candidates in the first congressional district were Republican Dave Rogers and Democrat Patrick Kennedy, would you vote for: 29% Rogers, 49% Kennedy, 22% don't know or no answer

(264 likely Democratic primary voters only) If the Democratic primary for governor were held today, would you vote for: 14% Antonio Pires, 22% Sheldon Whitehouse, 39% Myrth York, 25% don't know or no answer

(264 likely Democratic primary voters only) If the Democratic primary for secretary of state were held today, would you vote for: 23% Matt Brown, 26% Ed Inman, 51% don't know or no answer

We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are: 34% better off, 31% worse off financially than you were a year ago, 35% don't know or no answer

Now looking ahead--do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be: 31% better off financially, 9% worse off, 50% just about the same as now, 10% don't know or no answer

Now turning to business conditions in the state as a whole--do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have: 39% good times financially, 35% bad times, 26% don't know or no answer

Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely--that in the state as a whole: 41% we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, 33% that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, 26% don't know or no answer

About the big things people buy for their homes--such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a: 59% good, 20% bad time for people to buy major household items, 21% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job George W. Bush is doing as president? 20% excellent, 42% good, 22% only fair, 7% poor, 9% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job Jack Reed is doing as U.S. Senator? 16% excellent, 49% good, 17% only fair, 4% poor, 14% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job Lincoln Chafee is doing as U.S. Senator? 6% excellent, 47% good, 27% only fair, 6% poor, 14% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job Patrick Kennedy is doing as U.S. Representative? 11% excellent, 41% good, 25% only fair, 14% poor, 9% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job Jim Langevin is doing as U.S. Representative? 17% excellent, 47% good, 17% only fair, 1% poor, 18% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job Lincoln Almond is doing as governor? 3% excellent, 25% good, 37% only fair, 26% poor, 9% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job Charles Fogarty is doing as lieutenant governor? 5% excellent, 34% good, 28% only fair, 2% poor, 31% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job Sheldon Whitehouse is doing as attorney general? 10% excellent, 43% good, 24% only fair, 8% poor, 15% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job Ed Inman is doing as secretary of state? 3% excellent, 31% good, 22% only fair, 7% poor, 37% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job Paul Tavares is doing as general treasurer? 6% excellent, 39% good, 23% only fair, 3% poor, 29% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job John Harwood is doing as Speaker of the House? 2% excellent, 23% good, 21% only fair, 23% poor, 31% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job William Irons is doing as Senate Majority Leader? 3% excellent, 24% good, 22% only fair, 14% poor, 37% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job Buddy Cianci is doing as mayor of Providence? 20% excellent, 39% good, 14% only fair, 14% poor, 13% don't know or no answer

Generally speaking, would you say things in Rhode Island are going in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track? 43% right direction, 43% wrong track, 14% don't know or no answer

As far as you are concerned, what is the most important problem facing the state of Rhode Island today? (open-ended responses classified into the following categories) 11% unemployment and jobs, 11% the economy, 10% ethics and corruption, 8% education, 8% government budget, 6% government officials, 3% taxes, 3% crime, 2% business climate, 2% health care, all others under 2%

How serious of a problem do you think corruption is in Providence city government? 50% very serious, 33% somewhat serious, 7% not very serious, 10% don't know or no answer

Do you think Providence Mayor Buddy Cianci has provided strong leadership for the city? 67% yes, 16% no, 17% don't know or no answer

Do you believe Buddy Cianci is an honest person? 19% yes, 50% no, 31% don't know or no answer

Do you think Buddy Cianci has provided effective management of Providence city government? 44% yes, 34% no, 22% don't know or no answer

Buddy Cianci has been indicted on charges including corruption, bribery, and extortion. Do you believe Cianci is: 52% guilty, 25% not guilty, 23% don't know or no answer

Do you think the jury in his trial will find Cianci: 15% guilty, 56% not guilty, 29% don't know or no answer